Many sports bettors use data-driven analytics to replace the guesswork in their decision-making to gain a strategic advantage over The Books. Instead of relying on emotion, hunches, or team loyalty, bettors use advanced statistics and predictive models to improve their chances of long-term profitability. Two specific metrics that I often get asked about are Expected Value (or EV) and Fair Value (or FV). What do these metrics mean and why do we care? Allow me to elaborate.

In sports betting, Fair Value (FV) is the true, no vig, probability of an betting outcome, while Expected Value (EV) measures the long-term profitability of a specific bet by comparing the FV to the sportsbook’s odds. Sharp bettors use these concepts to identify and exploit mispriced odds over time, rather than just picking winners.

Let’s break this down further, shall we.

Fair Value (FV)

Fair Value represents the true, objective probability of a betting outcome, with the sportsbook's commission (known as the "vig" or "juice") removed.

In layman’s terms, the odds that a bookmaker would offer if they were not charging a fee to take the bet. For example, the FV of a coin flip is +100 for both heads and tails, representing a true 50% probability for each outcome. You can determine the fair value of a bet by removing the vig from a sportsbook's odds, often using a "no-vig" calculator or by averaging odds from multiple "sharp" (efficient) sportsbooks.

Example: A sportsbook offers odds of -110 on a team, which implies a 52.38% chance of winning. After removing the vig, the fair value odds might be +100, indicating a true 50% probability.

Expected Value (EV)

Expected Value is a statistical calculation that determines the average amount of money a bettor can expect to win or lose for each bet placed repeatedly over a long period.

In other words, EV quantifies your potential edge on a specific bet. A positive EV (+EV) means the bet has a long-term advantage for the bettor, while a negative EV (-EV) means it is profitable for the sportsbook.

In order to calculate EV, we use it’s formula:

EV=(Probability of Winning×Profit per Win)−(Probability of Losing×Amount Wagered)

As an example, let’s use the common ‘coin flip’. The fair value odds (FV) would be +100 for both heads and tails (50% probability). Now let’s say that the consensus sportsbook odds are juiced at -110 for either result, but you find one book that is offering +120 odds for tails. A much better price than the consensus. Sweet!

Now to calculate the EV, we run the numbers through the equation, like so:

EV = (Probability of Winning × Profit) - (Probability of Losing × Loss)

EV = (0.50 × $120) - (0.50 × $100)

EV = $60 - $50

EV = $10

What we’ve learned is that for every $100 wagerd on tails at +120 odds, you can expect to profit and average of $10 per bet over the long run, making this a +EV bet.

The Relationship Between EV and FV

The connection between these two concepts is fundamental to profitable betting: Expected Value is calculated by comparing your Fair Value assessment to the odds a sportsbook is offering.

In summary, remember to find the Fair Value using your own research or a consensus of sharp sportsbooks and determine the true, no-vig probability of an outcome. Then compare odds, by finding a sportsbook that offers odds more favorable than the FV you previously calculated, and then finally, calculate the EV using the FV probability and the sportsbook's offered odds. If the EV is positive, you have found a profitable betting opportunity.

So there you have it. Don't let the math scare you. That's the easy part. Researching the data points used for input is where the real work comes from. Relish the process, it's that important.

I hope I was able to shed some light on this subject, and like I said, you will absolutely want to incorporate these analytics within your own research. Some might even say it's +EV to do so. 😂 (sorry, data science humor)

LFG!

~Let's Go David J

(The bettor sits at a table, looking at a betting sheet and checking their phone for live lines)

"Alright, let's break down this chalk matchup. The public is all over the favorite, but I'm sensing some value in the dog tonight. The line movement is telling me something interesting. It opened at -7, but with all the public money pouring in on the favorite, the books have moved it all the way to -8.5 with the juice at -110. Classic overcorrection."

(The bettor leans in, tapping his phone)

"Instead of just taking the underdog to cover the spread at +8.5, I'm going to buy the hook and get them at +9, which gives me even more breathing room. It's a small price to pay in extra juice to get off that key number of 7 and through 8. I'll lay a nickel on that one."

~ Anonymous sports bettor

✂️─────────────✂️

One may infer from the quotes above, that this person may have made a bet or two in their time. Their choice of words tell us this much. Well, maybe some of us. Others may have no idea what the hell they were talking about, which gets me thinking. Sports betting has its own language (kind of). I was thinking that there is enough jargon, lingo, and phrases that a fluid list seemed appropriate. Here's what I've come up with so far. Suggestions not only welcome, but preferred.

Types of Bets

• Moneyline: A straightforward bet on which team or player will win the game outright, without considering a point spread.
• Point spread: A bet on the margin of victory. The favorite must win by more than a specified number of points, while the underdog can lose by less than that amount (or win outright).
• Over/Under (Totals): A bet on whether the total combined score of both teams will be over or under a number set by the sportsbook.
• Parlay: A single wager combining two or more individual bets. To win the parlay, every bet within it must be successful, which offers a higher payout at a higher risk.
• Prop bet (Proposition bet): A wager on a specific event within a game that doesn't necessarily relate to the final outcome. This can include bets on a specific player's performance or which team will score first.
• Futures bet: A long-term wager on an event that will happen later in the season, such as which team will win the championship.
• Teaser: A variation of a parlay that allows you to adjust the point spreads or totals in your favor, but in exchange for a lower potential payout.
• Live betting (In-game wagering): Betting on a game in real-time after it has already started, with continuously updated odds.
• Round robin: A series of smaller parlay bets created automatically from a single group of wagers allowing bettors to win even if one or more of their picks is wrong.
• Grand Salami: A single, combined over/under wager that covers the total number of points, runs, or goals scored in every game within a particular league on a given day.

Betting Terminology

• Action: A wager or bet placed on a game.
• Against the Spread (ATS): The outcome of a game specifically regarding the point spread. A record of 5-2 ATS means a team has covered the spread in five games out of seven.
• Bad beat: A wager that appears certain to win but ends up losing due to an unexpected, late-game turn of events.
• Bankroll: The total amount of money a bettor has set aside specifically for gambling.
• Bankroll management: the practice of strategically allocating and controlling your betting funds to minimize risk and promote long-term sustainability.
• Book (Sportsbook): A bookmaker or establishment that accepts bets.
• Buck (dollar): A $100 bet.
• Casual bettor: Most sports bettors are casual. They bet for fun and typically don't bet large sums and often wager on favorites or teams they like.
• Chalk: The favored team or player, or the favorite in a specific game.
• Cover: To win against the point spread. The favorite must win by more than the spread, and the underdog must lose by less or win outright.
• Dime: A $1,000 bet.
• Edge: Refers to a sports bettor’s competitive advantage over a sportsbook.
• Expected Value (EV): Quantifies your potential long-term edge on a specific bet. 
• Even money: A bet with odds that pay out 1-to-1, meaning a $100 wager would profit $100.
• Fade: To bet against a particular team or bettor, or to go against the public consensus.
• Fair Value (FV): The odds that a bookmaker would offer if they were not charging a fee to take bets.
• Favorite: The team or player expected to win, indicated by negative odds (e.g., -150).
• Handicapping: The practice of researching and analyzing sports statistics to predict the outcome of games.
• Handle: The total amount of money wagered on a game, event, or a set period of time.
• Hedge: Placing an opposing bet on a previous wager to guarantee a profit or reduce a potential loss.
• Hook: A half-point in a point spread.
• Juice (Vig or Vigorish): The commission or fee charged by a sportsbook for taking a bet. Standard juice is often -110.
• Key number: refers to the most common margins of victory in a given sport, e.g., NFL 3, 7.
• Leg: one of the individual wagers that make up a larger, combined bet called a parlay.
• Line: Another term for the odds or point spread set by the oddsmaker.
• Line movement: Refers to any change in the odds or point spread for a game from the moment it is first offered until the event begins.
• Lock: A wager that a bettor considers a guaranteed win.
• Nerfy (NRFI): Stands for "No Run First Inning". It is a popular proposition bet in baseball where you wager that no runs will be scored by either team during the 1st inning of a game. On the flip side, YRFI, is the "Yes" version.
• Nickel: A $500 bet.
• Pick'em (PK): A game where neither side is considered the favorite, indicated by a point spread of zero.
• Public money: The bets placed by casual or recreational bettors who wager based on popular opinion, team loyalty, or a team's recent performance.
• Punter: A common term for a sports bettor, especially in the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand. However, in other circles, it describes a recreational gambler rather than a professional.
• Push: When a bet results in a tie. All wagers on a push are refunded.
• Sawbuck: A $10 bet.
• Sharp: A professional or highly knowledgeable sports bettor.
• Sharp money: The bets placed by experienced and professional gamblers.
• Split: Refers to the percentage of total bets in relation to the percentage of total money wagered on each side of a particular bet.
• Square: A casual or recreational bettor, the opposite of a sharp.
• Steam: A rapid and dramatic change in a betting line caused by a large influx of bets, often from professional bettors.
• Tail: To make the same bet as a particular sports bettor or group.
• Underdog (Dog): The team or player expected to lose, indicated by positive odds (e.g., +200).
• Unit: A standard measure of betting size, typically a set percentage of a bettor's bankroll.
• Value: A perceived advantage a bettor finds when the odds offered by a sportsbook are more favorable than the probability of the outcome.

What do you think of the list so far? A pretty good start to sounding like a winning sports better, if I don't say so myself. Notice, I said "sounding like". 😁 Now I'm quite sure I've overlooked plenty of others. So please, do me a favor and remind me by commenting more suggestions. I'd love to add more to the list.

LFG!

~ Let's Go David J